I recently became aware of the Hubbert Peak Theory and wanted to know more about it. I have been reading numerous articles and doing some research about the issues that I have found. Open this window, and minimize it, forget about it until you finish this article.

The Hubbert Peak, or Peak Oil was proposed in 1956. It predicted that US oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. That happened in 1971. It predicted that world oil production would peak in 2000.

In the spring of 2004, according to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO), global production of conventional oil peaked at a rate of 23 Billion Barrels a Day. After the loss of Gulf of Mexico oil rigs following Katrina, Saudi Arabia admitted that it could not increase production.

The Energy Curve of History
The Energy Curve of Histoy

This brings us to the Olduvai Theory. The theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production (use) and world population. The details are worked out. The theory is easy. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030.

This year, 2006, food prices are set to be dramatically higher, followed by 2005's highest increase in interest rates in 15 years, which were mostly due to higher energy costs.

  • Large government debt (in the US alone it is nearly $8 trillion)
  • The impending retirement of the baby-boomer generation and the general aging of populations
  • Dependence of the largest employers on cheap, abundant, and immediately available forms of energy (i.e. the car industry, the airline industry, "big-box" stores, etc.--essentially, the backbone of the entire economies of all the richest countries in the world)
  • Burgeoning personal debt through credit cards and rising housing prices

    • http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

    http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/21/commentary/column_hays/hays/

    http://www.energybulletin.net/3792.html

    http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article339928.ece

    http://www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/olduvai2000.htm

    http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Gasoline_Inflation.asp

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2099-1813695_1,00.html

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak

    http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,1870214,00.html

    Consumer Spending Surges in December: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/income/2006-01-30-income_x.htm?csp=34

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